Economic Update
Local
2Q24 Malaysia Gross Domestic Product - Robust Economic Growth
Mon, 19-Aug-2024 08:39 am
by Kenneth Leong • Apex Research

Summary

  • Malaysia’s GDP growth accelerated to +5.9% yoy in 2Q24 (1Q24 at +4.2 yoy), and came above advanced estimate of +5.8% yoy. For 1H24, the economy expanded +5.1% (1H23 at +4.1% yoy), which largely on track to meet the Government projection of +4.0%-5.0% for 2024 and surpassed our initial forecast of +4.1% yoy for end-2024.

  • We expect Malaysia’s Real GDP growth to remain steadfast in 2H24 to end at +5.2% in 2024 vs. 3.6% in 2023, supported by (i) stronger domestic spending, (ii) stability and gradual improving labour market conditions, (iii) progressive income growth, (iv) execution of multi-year projects from approved investments, (v) resumption of global technology upcycle and (vi) recovery in tourism spending. End 2025 target kept unchanged at +4.6% yoy. 

  • Headline and core inflation is projected to inch higher to +2.6% yoy and +2.5% yoy in 2024, which is in line with BNM’s projection of 2.0%-3.5% and 2.0%-3.0% respectively, impacted by the implementation of the diesel subsidy rationalisation and hike of the SST to 8.0%.

  • With expectations that BNM will maintain OPR at 3.0%, our 2024 year-end projection for USD/MYR is between 4.20-4.30, supported by the prospects of US interest rate cut(s) and steady economic improvements from structural reforms on the domestic front.

Sentiment: Positive
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Market Mover
Settlement Rates
Currency Buy Rates (RM) Sell Rates (RM)
USD 4.389719 4.419319
EUR 4.730753 4.734314
CNY 0.613618 0.614097
HKD 0.564733 0.568558
SGD 3.307640 3.330253