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Market Highlights
Economic Update
Mon, 17 Nov 2025 07:53 am
Malaysia 3Q25 GDP - Robust growth with upside risk to 2025 GDP

Malaysia’s GDP was robust at +5.2% YoY in 3Q25 (2Q25: +4.4%), in line with the advance estimate. Growth was lifted by stronger net exports, while domestic demand eased.  

The current account surplus widened to 2.4% of GDP (2Q25: 0.1%), driven by a larger goods surplus and a turnaround in services. We have revised our 2025 current account surplus forecast higher to 1.8% of GDP (previously 1.3%).

We see resilience in domestic demand over the medium term, but expect manufacturing and export growth to ease on external headwinds going into 2026.

We maintain our 2025 GDP growth forecast at +4.5%, with growth potentially reaching the upper end of the official forecast range of +4.0-4.8%.

For 2026, we keep our projection at +4.1%, reflecting a more moderate external outlook amid uncertainties surrounding US tariff policy.

Economic Update
Tue, 11 Nov 2025 07:59 am
Malaysia Labour Market - Steady conditions supportive of overall growth

• The labour market remained firm in September, with the unemployment rate holding at 3.0%, consistent with full employment.
• Hiring in the services sector is expected to stay resilient, supported by steady consumer spending and sustained investment flows. We project services GDP to grow around +5.0% YoY in both 2025 and 2026. 
• The better-than-expected performance in export-oriented manufacturing should provide near-term support to employment, though Malaysia’s October manufacturing PMI signalled uneven hiring momentum within the broader sector.
• We maintain our 2025 unemployment forecast at 3.0% (2024: 3.2%), which should continue to underpin private consumption. For 2026, we introduce a new unemployment rate forecast of 3.1%, reflecting a slight uptick as tariff effects become more visible.

Economic Update
Mon, 10 Nov 2025 07:28 am
Malaysia Industrial Production - Cautious optimism as tariff risks linger      

• Industrial Production Index (IPI) growth accelerated to +5.7% YoY in September (Aug: +4.8%), beating market expectations of +5.4%, led by stronger manufacturing output.
• Export-oriented cluster posted a positive performance in September, consistent with the +12.2% YoY jump in nominal exports.
• While the semiconductor upcycle, resilient domestic demand and easing global trade tensions help support the manufacturing outlook, early indicator such as the October manufacturing PMI points to softer momentum ahead.
• In line with our recent upward revision to the 2025 GDP growth forecast, we now project manufacturing growth at +3.9% YoY in 2025 (previously +3.7%) before easing to +3.4% in 2026.

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