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Market Highlights
Economic Update
Mon, 16 Feb 2026 07:46 am
Malaysia 4Q25 GDP - Firmer trajectory lifts 2026 outlook

• Malaysia’s GDP accelerated to +6.3% YoY in 4Q25 (3Q25: +5.4%), surpassing the advance estimate of +5.7%. Growth was driven by stronger domestic demand, while net exports declined. Full-year 2025 GDP growth came in at +5.2% (2024: +5.1%).
• The current account recorded a surplus of 0.4% of GDP (3Q25: 2.5%), supported by goods and services surpluses. We project a modest current account surplus of 1.5% of GDP in 2026.
• Headline growth was partly boosted by inventory accumulation, which is unlikely to be sustained. That said, domestic demand should remain resilient, while the external sector will be the key swing factor in 2026.
• In view of the firmer growth momentum, we revise our 2026 GDP forecast higher to +4.7% YoY (previously +4.3%).
• We expect BNM to keep the OPR at 2.75% throughout 2026, barring a materially stronger growth outlook or a significant easing in external risks that could warrant a hike towards 3.00%.

Economic Update
Thu, 12 Feb 2026 07:55 am
Malaysia Labour Market : Positive growth and steady OPR outlook

• The labour market remained resilient in December, with the unemployment rate holding at an 11-year low of 2.9%, consistent with firmer economic growth momentum.
• Stronger tourism flows under Visit Malaysia 2026 are expected to support job creation in services, while a record level of government cash assistance should help lift household spending on essential services.
• Global growth driven by the AI-led technology upcycle should lend further support to export-oriented manufacturing, especially the E&E segment.
• Given sustained improvements in unemployment, we now expect the unemployment rate to average 3.0% in 2026, from 3.1% previously.
• Against the backdrop of a tight labour market and stable inflation, we expect Bank Negara Malaysia to keep the OPR at 2.75% through 2026.

Economic Update
Tue, 10 Feb 2026 07:53 am
Malaysia Industrial Production : Increasingly Positive Outlook for 2026

• The Industrial Production Index (IPI) rose +4.8% YoY in December (Nov: +4.3%), beating market expectations of +4.5%, driven by firmer manufacturing output.
• The export-oriented cluster posted another strong performance, supported mainly by E&E, while the domestic-oriented cluster held steady at +4.9% YoY (Nov: +4.9%).
• An improving global backdrop amid the AI-driven tech upcycle, coupled with resilient domestic demand, should continue to support Malaysia’s manufacturing sector.
• We remain cautiously optimistic as global trade dynamics stay fluid, with the AI tech upcycle, intermittent trade tensions, potential semiconductor tariffs and the pending US Supreme Court ruling on tariff legality among the key moving parts.
• We keep our GDP forecasts at +4.7% YoY for 2025 and +4.3% for 2026 for now. That said, recent domestic indicators suggest upside to our growth forecast. 

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