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Market Highlights
Economic Update
Mon, 19 May 2025 07:20 am
Malaysia Q1 2025 GDP: Moderating Growth Outlook

Executive Summary

Malaysia’s GDP expanded in Q1 2025 albeit at a moderated pace of 4.4% yoy, compared to 4.9% in the previous quarter, driven by sustained household spending, stable expansion in investment activities and solid external demand which propelled exports growth.

On a quarter-on-quarter (qoq) seasonally adjusted basis, Malaysia’s GDP rose 0.7% qoq in Q1 2025, recovering from -0.2% qoq in Q4 2024 on the back of improvement across all but the mining and quarrying sector.

We project Malaysia’s economy to expand at a more moderate rate of 4.2% yoy in 2025, a downward revision from the earlier estimate of 4.6% yoy. This adjustment reflects the anticipated impact of a baseline scenario involving a 10% reciprocal tariff, which could dampen global trade activity, disrupt supply chains, and lead to softer consumer spending and business investment.

Market Outlook
Thu, 03 Apr 2025 07:12 am
Market Strategy - Navigating the Post-Tariff Landscape

Reciprocal tariff from US was announced on 3 Apr 2025 at a rate between 10%-49% to all US trading partners that will take effect from 5 Apr 2025.

Escalating tariff tensions between US and rest of the world may potentially derail Malaysia’s GDP growth prospects, but being at the lower end in Most-favoured-nation (MFN) trade weighted average against the ASEAN average, this could be deemed positive for Malaysian products entering into US markets in relative to goods from other ASEAN countries that may face higher tariffs.

With recent tariff policies straighten out, we encourage investors to focus on stocks with minimal exposure to US markets. Recent market pullback offers opportunity to bargain hunt onto selected fundamentally sound beaten down stocks.

Maintain end-2025 FBM KLCI target to 1,680 based on PE multiple of 14.5x, which represents -0.5 SD of long-term forward average.

Our top picks revolve around a mix of defensive-natured players as well as companies with strong potential upsides over the foreseeable future such as CBH (BUY; TP: RM0.54), UUE (BUY; TP: RM1.14), SAMAIDEN (BUY; TP: RM1.71), SCGBHD (BUY; TP: RM1.71), CCK (BUY; TP:RM1.79), ATECH (BUY; TP:RM4.17), MFCB (BUY; TP:RM5.36), PEKAT (BUY; TP:RM1.43), FRONTKN (BUY; TP:RM4.37) and SLVEST (BUY; TP:RM2.03).

Economic Update
Mon, 24 Mar 2025 06:29 am
Malaysia Inflation Rate - Inflation Eased in February

Malaysia’s inflation eased to 1.5% yoy in Feb 2025, decreased from the previous month.

Inflation was primarily driven by a softer increase in Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels, Recreation, Sport & Culture, Health, Transport and Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance.

We maintain our forecast that full-year CPI inflation will moderate to 2.6% in 2025 (2024: 1.8%), within the official 2.0%-3.5% range.

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