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Market Highlights
Economic Update
Mon, 24 Nov 2025 07:07 am
Malaysia Inflation Rate - Benign inflation supports a stable OPR outlook

Headline inflation eased to +1.3% YoY in October (Sep: +1.5%), slightly below consensus, led by lower food, electricity and petrol prices.

Core inflation edged up to +2.2% YoY (Sep: +2.1%), reinforcing our view that domestic demand remains the key growth anchor.

Muted SST passthrough, a lower RON95 price for eligible Malaysians and a firmer ringgit point to slight downside risks to our 2026 inflation forecast of +2.0% YoY.

Given the steady growth and inflation outlook, we expect BNM to keep the OPR at 2.75% through 2026.

Economic Update
Thu, 20 Nov 2025 07:19 am
Malaysia External Trade - Another month of positive surprise

Malaysia’s export growth surged +15.7% YoY in October (Sep: +12.5%), beating market expectations, while gross imports rose +11.2% (Sep: +7.2%). The trade surplus narrowed slightly to RM19.0bn (Sep: RM20.2bn).

Manufacturing exports was lifted by a stronger E&E print of +26.5% (Sep: +19.5%), while commodity exports provided additional support to headline growth.

Capital goods imports jumped +51.9% YoY (Sep: +9.0%), reinforcing our view that the investment cycle still has room to run, underpinning domestic demand.

We remain cautious as external headwinds are likely to intensify heading into 2026, with intermittent volatility expected as global supply chains continue to reshuffle.

We maintain our USDMYR projection at 4.20 for 2025, strengthening modestly to 4.15 in 2026, providing stability to the external sector.

We maintain our full-year 2025 export forecast at +4.2%, with risks increasingly skewed to the upside.

Economic Update
Mon, 17 Nov 2025 07:53 am
Malaysia 3Q25 GDP - Robust growth with upside risk to 2025 GDP

Malaysia’s GDP was robust at +5.2% YoY in 3Q25 (2Q25: +4.4%), in line with the advance estimate. Growth was lifted by stronger net exports, while domestic demand eased.  

The current account surplus widened to 2.4% of GDP (2Q25: 0.1%), driven by a larger goods surplus and a turnaround in services. We have revised our 2025 current account surplus forecast higher to 1.8% of GDP (previously 1.3%).

We see resilience in domestic demand over the medium term, but expect manufacturing and export growth to ease on external headwinds going into 2026.

We maintain our 2025 GDP growth forecast at +4.5%, with growth potentially reaching the upper end of the official forecast range of +4.0-4.8%.

For 2026, we keep our projection at +4.1%, reflecting a more moderate external outlook amid uncertainties surrounding US tariff policy.

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