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Market Highlights
Economic Update
Thu, 12 Mar 2026 07:50 am
Malaysia Labour Market - Steady outlook but modest headwinds ahead

• The labour market remained stable in January, with the unemployment rate holding at an
11-year low of 2.9%, in line with firm domestic activity.
• Stronger tourism under Visit Malaysia 2026, ongoing policy support and structural shifts
in investment should support hiring momentum and quality job creation.
• Flattish employment growth in January, together with reports of manufacturers reducing
staffing levels, warrants close monitoring in our view.
• While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pose downside risks to employment in
export-oriented sectors, we expect the impact to remain manageable at this juncture.
• We expect the unemployment rate to average 3.0% in 2026 (2025: 3.0%).

Economic Update
Wed, 11 Mar 2026 07:57 am
Malaysia Industrial Production - Steady Outlook even as External Risks rise

• The Industrial Production Index (IPI) rose +5.9% YoY in January (Dec: +4.8%), beating
market expectations of +5.0%, driven mainly by firmer manufacturing output.
• The export-oriented cluster recorded another strong month, supported by E&E, while the
domestic-oriented cluster accelerated to +5.4% YoY (Dec: +4.9%).
• The AI-driven semiconductor upcycle, together with resilient domestic consumption,
should continue to support Malaysia’s manufacturing sector.
• While lingering uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy and the US-Iran conflict has raised
external risks, we expect the impact on Malaysia’s economy to remain limited and
manageable at this juncture.
• We keep our 2026 manufacturing growth forecast at +4.5% YoY (2025: +4.5%) and GDP
forecast at +4.7% (2025: +5.2%) for now.

Economic Update
Fri, 06 Mar 2026 07:30 am
BNM MPC Meeting - Stable OPR outlook despite rising external risks

• BNM maintained the OPR at 2.75% in its March MPC meeting, in line with expectations. 
• The policy tone turned more cautious on the global economic outlook amid the Middle East conflict, while maintaining a sanguine outlook on domestic growth and inflation.
• We see no urgency for BNM to ease, barring an unexpected deterioration in growth below BNM’s forecast.   
• Given the sanguine growth outlook and benign inflation environment, we expect BNM to maintain the OPR at 2.75% through 2026.

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EUR 4.541033 4.545818
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SGD 3.066229 3.087922
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