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Market Highlights
Economic Update
Tue, 11 Nov 2025 07:59 am
Malaysia Labour Market - Steady conditions supportive of overall growth

• The labour market remained firm in September, with the unemployment rate holding at 3.0%, consistent with full employment.
• Hiring in the services sector is expected to stay resilient, supported by steady consumer spending and sustained investment flows. We project services GDP to grow around +5.0% YoY in both 2025 and 2026. 
• The better-than-expected performance in export-oriented manufacturing should provide near-term support to employment, though Malaysia’s October manufacturing PMI signalled uneven hiring momentum within the broader sector.
• We maintain our 2025 unemployment forecast at 3.0% (2024: 3.2%), which should continue to underpin private consumption. For 2026, we introduce a new unemployment rate forecast of 3.1%, reflecting a slight uptick as tariff effects become more visible.

Economic Update
Mon, 10 Nov 2025 07:28 am
Malaysia Industrial Production - Cautious optimism as tariff risks linger      

• Industrial Production Index (IPI) growth accelerated to +5.7% YoY in September (Aug: +4.8%), beating market expectations of +5.4%, led by stronger manufacturing output.
• Export-oriented cluster posted a positive performance in September, consistent with the +12.2% YoY jump in nominal exports.
• While the semiconductor upcycle, resilient domestic demand and easing global trade tensions help support the manufacturing outlook, early indicator such as the October manufacturing PMI points to softer momentum ahead.
• In line with our recent upward revision to the 2025 GDP growth forecast, we now project manufacturing growth at +3.9% YoY in 2025 (previously +3.7%) before easing to +3.4% in 2026.

Economic Update
Fri, 07 Nov 2025 08:10 am
BNM MPC Meeting - Stable OPR outlook on easing trade concerns

• BNM maintained the OPR at 2.75% in its November MPC meeting, in line with expectations.
• The policy tone turned slightly more upbeat on the economic and tariff outlook, while projecting inflation to stay moderate into 2026.
• BNM’s policy path will hinge on tariff developments, with semiconductor-related tariffs remaining the key risk. That said, easing trade tensions support a stable OPR outlook.
• We expect BNM to keep the OPR unchanged at 2.75% through 2026, barring renewed trade shocks.

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