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Market Highlights
Economic Update
Thu, 20 Nov 2025 07:19 am
Malaysia External Trade - Another month of positive surprise

Malaysia’s export growth surged +15.7% YoY in October (Sep: +12.5%), beating market expectations, while gross imports rose +11.2% (Sep: +7.2%). The trade surplus narrowed slightly to RM19.0bn (Sep: RM20.2bn).

Manufacturing exports was lifted by a stronger E&E print of +26.5% (Sep: +19.5%), while commodity exports provided additional support to headline growth.

Capital goods imports jumped +51.9% YoY (Sep: +9.0%), reinforcing our view that the investment cycle still has room to run, underpinning domestic demand.

We remain cautious as external headwinds are likely to intensify heading into 2026, with intermittent volatility expected as global supply chains continue to reshuffle.

We maintain our USDMYR projection at 4.20 for 2025, strengthening modestly to 4.15 in 2026, providing stability to the external sector.

We maintain our full-year 2025 export forecast at +4.2%, with risks increasingly skewed to the upside.

Economic Update
Mon, 17 Nov 2025 07:53 am
Malaysia 3Q25 GDP - Robust growth with upside risk to 2025 GDP

Malaysia’s GDP was robust at +5.2% YoY in 3Q25 (2Q25: +4.4%), in line with the advance estimate. Growth was lifted by stronger net exports, while domestic demand eased.  

The current account surplus widened to 2.4% of GDP (2Q25: 0.1%), driven by a larger goods surplus and a turnaround in services. We have revised our 2025 current account surplus forecast higher to 1.8% of GDP (previously 1.3%).

We see resilience in domestic demand over the medium term, but expect manufacturing and export growth to ease on external headwinds going into 2026.

We maintain our 2025 GDP growth forecast at +4.5%, with growth potentially reaching the upper end of the official forecast range of +4.0-4.8%.

For 2026, we keep our projection at +4.1%, reflecting a more moderate external outlook amid uncertainties surrounding US tariff policy.

Economic Update
Tue, 11 Nov 2025 07:59 am
Malaysia Labour Market - Steady conditions supportive of overall growth

• The labour market remained firm in September, with the unemployment rate holding at 3.0%, consistent with full employment.
• Hiring in the services sector is expected to stay resilient, supported by steady consumer spending and sustained investment flows. We project services GDP to grow around +5.0% YoY in both 2025 and 2026. 
• The better-than-expected performance in export-oriented manufacturing should provide near-term support to employment, though Malaysia’s October manufacturing PMI signalled uneven hiring momentum within the broader sector.
• We maintain our 2025 unemployment forecast at 3.0% (2024: 3.2%), which should continue to underpin private consumption. For 2026, we introduce a new unemployment rate forecast of 3.1%, reflecting a slight uptick as tariff effects become more visible.

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