Malaysia’s GDP growth held steady at +4.4% YoY in 2Q25 (1Q25: +4.4%), slightly undershooting expectations as domestic strength was offset by slower external trade.
The current account surplus narrowed sharply to 0.1% of GDP in 2Q25 (1Q25: 3.4%), mainly on a weaker goods surplus. We project the 2025 surplus to moderate to 1.3% of GDP (2024: 1.4%), as external conditions remain volatile.
A key risk lies in sectoral tariffs on semiconductors, which could raise Malaysia’s effective tariff to c.35%, above BNM’s baseline assumptions underpinning its revised 2025 GDP growth range of 4.0–4.8%.
Our base case assumes a 100% tariff on semiconductors with half of Malaysia’s exports exempted, placing GDP growth at +4.0%, the lower bound of BNM’s forecast. Sensitivity analysis suggests that every additional 25-ppt increase in tariffs could shave off c.0.1 ppts from GDP growth.
While semiconductor tariffs could tilt BNM’s policy bias more dovish, we see no urgency for another policy rate cut. We expect OPR to remain at 2.75% through 2025.
Looking ahead, we remain watchful for external risks, including a potential slowdown in China and the evolving tariff landscape. For now, we maintain our 2025 GDP growth forecast of +4.2%, with semiconductor tariff impacts yet to be incorporated into our baseline projections.
Disclaimer
The report is for internal and private circulation only and shall not be reproduced either in part or otherwise without the prior written consent of Apex Securities Berhad. The opinions and information contained herein are based on available data believed to be reliable. It is not to be construed as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell the securities covered by this report.
Opinions, estimates and projections in this report constitute the current judgment of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Apex Securities Berhad and are subject to change without notice. Apex Securities Berhad has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate.
Apex Securities Berhad does not warrant the accuracy of anything stated herein in any manner whatsoever and no reliance upon such statement by anyone shall give rise to any claim whatsoever against Apex Securities Berhad. Apex Securities Berhad may from time to time have an interest in the company mentioned by this report. This report may not be reproduced, copied or circulated without the prior written approval of Apex Securities Berhad.
| Stock | Last (RM) | Change (RM) | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.220 | -0.020 | 156.10M | |
| 0.200 | 0.005 | 115.60M | |
| 0.510 | -0.125 | 98.70M | |
| 0.145 | -0.020 | 96.79M | |
| 0.190 | 0.000 | 89.96M | |
| 0.705 | -0.020 | 75.87M | |
| 2.070 | 0.120 | 44.22M | |
| 0.075 | -0.005 | 41.01M | |
| 0.015 | -0.010 | 39.24M | |
| 0.860 | -0.010 | 38.17M |
| Stock | Last (RM) | Change (RM) | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13.880 | 0.520 | 233.60K | |
| 26.860 | 0.420 | 196.80K | |
| 18.360 | 0.260 | 306.60K | |
| 5.160 | 0.160 | 5.60M | |
| 5.850 | 0.150 | 2.79M | |
| 3.690 | 0.150 | 1.12M | |
| 22.760 | 0.140 | 307.00K | |
| 1.790 | 0.120 | 216.40K | |
| 2.070 | 0.120 | 44.22M | |
| 0.990 | 0.105 | 10.00K |
| Stock | Last (RM) | Change (RM) | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95.020 | -0.980 | 110.50K | |
| 21.180 | -0.620 | 661.90K | |
| 20.220 | -0.360 | 632.30K | |
| 17.140 | -0.280 | 101.60K | |
| 16.160 | -0.240 | 410.30K | |
| 13.200 | -0.240 | 9.95M | |
| 2.420 | -0.160 | 18.98M | |
| 0.015 | -0.135 | 5.90K | |
| 0.510 | -0.125 | 98.70M | |
| 5.560 | -0.110 | 19.83M |
| Currency | Buy Rates (RM) | Sell Rates (RM) |
|---|---|---|
| USD | 4.202015 | 4.235318 |
| EUR | 4.910409 | 4.915416 |
| CNY | 0.591633 | 0.592086 |
| HKD | 0.539313 | 0.543090 |
| SGD | 3.271821 | 3.294958 |
Last Updated: Friday, August 29, 2025
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