FBM KLCI declined in six of the last nine World Cups, with average return of about -2.0% during the tournament.
Trading activity typically softens, with five of the last seven events recording lower Bursa Malaysia volume.
Market impact tends to be temporary, with post-World Cup direction remaining mixed.
Near-term volatility may rise amid May seasonality, World Cup lull and Iran-related geopolitical risks.
We introduce our FBM KLCI year-end target of 1,787, while favouring structural growth themes in AI and data centres, complemented by tactical small-cap exposure for alpha generation.
Top picks: ViTrox, Mi Technovation, MSC, Frontken, Aurelius Technologies, Tenaga, EG Industries, Seni Jaya Corporation, Southern Score Builders and Ramssol.
Quick Take
With the 2026 FIFA World Cup approaching, investors may question whether market activity could soften during the tournament period, which typically coincides with mid-year holidays and reduced participation.
To assess this, we reviewed FBM KLCI performance and Bursa Malaysia trading volume across the last nine World Cups (1990–2022). While history does not necessarily repeat itself, past patterns may provide guidance on potential market behaviour during the upcoming tournament.
Our Findings
FBM KLCI has generally tended to soften during the World Cup period, with six out of the last nine tournaments recording declines during the event. Only the 2006, 2010 and 2022 World Cups saw clear positive performances. On average, the FBM KLCI delivered a return of approximately -2.0% during the tournament, although the median performance is slightly positive, reflecting the outsized decline during 1998.
The weakest performances were recorded in 1998 (-16.7%), amid the Asian Financial Crisis backdrop, followed by declines in 2002 (-4.6%) and 2018 (-2.1%). In contrast, stronger performances were observed in 2010 (+2.7%), 1990 (+1.1%), and 2022 (+1.9%), with the latter benefiting from the November–December timing which coincided with year-end rally support.
In terms of monthly pattern, June performance has typically been weak, while July tends to stabilise. Post-event direction remains mixed and inconclusive. Some years saw the market continue trending lower after the tournament, such as in 1990, 2002 and 2014, while other years recorded strong rallies, notably in 2006 and 2010. The remaining instances were mixed, including 1994 and 2018. Overall, the World Cup tends to temporarily dampen market momentum, but does not determine the medium-term trend.
Trading activity also shows a clear slowdown during the World Cup period. Bursa Malaysia trading volume generally contracts during the tournament. Comparing trading volume during the event against one-month prior shows declines in most years, including 1998 (-1%), 2002 (-45%), 2006 (-39%), 2010 (-15%), 2014 (-31%) and 2018 (-19%). The only exception was 2022, which recorded a 21% increase, likely due to post-pandemic volatility and the year-end timing.
Conclusion
Overall, five of the last seven World Cups saw trading volume decline during the event. Liquidity typically returns within one to three months after the tournament, suggesting that investors tend to reduce participation during matches and holiday periods. This supports the view of more subdued trading activity during the World Cup.
Historically, markets often experience mild window dressing and positioning activity ahead of the World Cup. During the tournament, the index tends to soften alongside lower trading volume and reduced participation. After the event, market direction is mixed, with the broader trend typically resuming based on underlying macroeconomic and earnings drivers.
Strategy
Given the traditionally volatile month of May, coupled with potential pressure during the World Cup and heightened geopolitical uncertainty from the Iran conflict, market gyrations could increase in the months ahead. Nonetheless, we believe investors should look beyond the short-term volatility and take any weakness as an opportunity to position ahead. In this report, we introduce our FBM KLCI year-end target of 1,787, derived from our Elliott Wave framework. With the complex WXY correction likely completed, the KLCI is expected to begin a new five-wave impulsive advance.
We continue to favour structural growth themes, notably AI and data centres, while tactically allocating to small caps to drive alpha generation.
Our top picks are ViTrox, Mi Technovation, MSC, Frontken, Aurelius Technologies, Tenaga, EG Industries, Seni Jaya Corporation, Southern Score Builders, and Ramssol.
Disclaimer
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Opinions, estimates and projections in this report constitute the current judgment of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Apex Securities Berhad and are subject to change without notice. Apex Securities Berhad has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate.
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| Currency | Buy Rates (RM) | Sell Rates (RM) |
|---|---|---|
| USD | 3.961179 | 3.989062 |
| EUR | 4.642766 | 4.647694 |
| CNY | 0.581738 | 0.582351 |
| HKD | 0.505758 | 0.509339 |
| SGD | 3.104708 | 3.126789 |