Earnings momentum expected to strengthen in FY26, supported by the RM617.5m order book, accelerated recognition from CGPP projects and the commencement of LSS5 works.
RM1bn order book target remains achievable, with LSS5+ likely to drive near-term replenishment, mirroring LSS5’s 18.3% market share (current c.5%).
Panel price increases of 15-20% remain manageable, supported by market-to-order procurement model and a stronger MYR that helps cushion procurement costs.
Maintain HOLD recommendation with an unchanged TP of RM1.42, based on SOP valuation.
We attended SAMAIDEN’s post-results briefing recently and below are the key takeaways:
Earnings momentum expected to strengthen in FY26. The Group’s earnings outlook remains positive, supported by a RM617.5m order book (c.1.8x FY25 revenue). Near-term earnings will be driven by ongoing CGPP EPCC works and the commencement of LSS5 construction, which is expected to ramp up by 2QFY26 to meet the COD timelines in 2027-2028. Management indicated that CGPP projects have on average surpassed the 50% completion mark, with several already in mid- and late-stage construction. This places the Group in a favourable position for stronger sequential earnings as these projects enter accelerated billing phases, where revenue and margin recognition typically peak.
RM1bn order book target remains on track. Current tender pipeline stood at RM2.0-2.2bn, with LSS5+ forming the bulk of near-term opportunities. YTD, SAMAIDEN has secured about 18.3% market share in LSS5 and appears on track to achieve similar levels for LSS5+ (currently at 5%), supported by its strong execution record and balance sheet. Management is also exploring opportunities in East Malaysia, underpinned by Sarawak’s plan to raise renewable capacity to 10GW by 2030 and 15GW by 2035 from 5.8GW currently. Solar farms are expected to gain traction given supportive policies and scalable economics. Based on current resources, management is confident in its ability to take on an additional 200MWac, translating into roughly RM600m of EPCC projects, without constraints. The Group is also advancing CRESS discussions with two HV and UHV offtakers, with one expected to conclude by 1HCY26, providing further upside.
Panel prices increase manageable despite near-term volatility. Panel prices have risen 15-20% from the trough, driven by China’s tighter tax exemptions, stronger domestic demand and factory shutdowns across parts of the supply chain following tightened energy-intensity controls. This consolidation has reduced effective capacity and contributed to upward price pressure. SAMAIDEN mitigates cost exposure by adopting a market-to-order procurement model, which enables the Group to lock in prices closer to project commencement and avoid carrying high-cost inventory. This approach also allows part of the cost fluctuations to be passed through to clients. In addition, the recent strengthening of the MYR has helped cushion procurement costs, keeping the impact manageable under fixed-cost EPCC arrangements.
Recurring income to rise gradually with CGPP asset commissioning. The two own-develop CGPP projects totalling 43MWac are scheduled for completion by end-2025, with initial electricity sales expected by 1QCY26. Based on our estimates, these assets could generate about RM18m in recurring income annually for up to 21 years, supporting a gradual transition towards a more asset-backed earnings mix. Management expects recurring income to scale further over the next two to three years as additional assets come online. Solar farms remain the Group’s core focus in expanding recurring income, supported by long-term visibility and strong cash flow.
Earnings revision. We make no changes to our earnings forecasts at this juncture.
Valuation & Recommendation. Maintain our HOLD recommendation with an unchanged TP of RM1.42, based on a sum-of-parts valuation and incorporating a three-star ESG rating. We continue to favour SAMAIDEN for its (i) expertise in ground-mounted solar PV projects, (ii) industry-leading low gearing with a net cash position as of 4QFY25, and (iii) strategic focus on bioenergy solutions, which sets it apart from other solar EPCC players.
Risks. Increase in solar module costs. Inability to complete projects in time. Intense market competition.
Disclaimer
The report is for internal and private circulation only and shall not be reproduced either in part or otherwise without the prior written consent of Apex Securities Berhad. The opinions and information contained herein are based on available data believed to be reliable. It is not to be construed as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell the securities covered by this report.
Opinions, estimates and projections in this report constitute the current judgment of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Apex Securities Berhad and are subject to change without notice. Apex Securities Berhad has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate.
Apex Securities Berhad does not warrant the accuracy of anything stated herein in any manner whatsoever and no reliance upon such statement by anyone shall give rise to any claim whatsoever against Apex Securities Berhad. Apex Securities Berhad may from time to time have an interest in the company mentioned by this report. This report may not be reproduced, copied or circulated without the prior written approval of Apex Securities Berhad.
| Currency | Buy Rates (RM) | Sell Rates (RM) |
|---|---|---|
| USD | 4.097838 | 4.131518 |
| EUR | 4.792120 | 4.798274 |
| CNY | 0.581833 | 0.582557 |
| HKD | 0.526644 | 0.530460 |
| SGD | 3.165781 | 3.188834 |