Oriental Kopi Holdings Bhd - Within Expectations
Wed, 26-Nov-2025 09:10 am
by Research Team • Apex Research

Counter

KOPI (0338)

Target Price (RM)

1.26

Recommendation

Hold

  • KOPI’s 4QFY25 CNP came in at RM14.8m (-12.9% QoQ), bringing 12MFY25 CNP to RM60.0m, accounting for 98% of our full-year forecast and 97% of consensus estimates. 

  • The Group declared a first interim dividend of 1.0 sen (ex-date: 9 Dec 2025).

  • KOPI’s café segment is expected to remain the key earnings driver in FY26F, supported by resilient domestic consumption, strengthening tourism under the Visit Malaysia 2026 campaign and plans to expand its domestic café network (FY26F: 6 new outlets).

  • With the surge in share price narrowing upside potential, we downgrade to HOLD from BUY while maintaining our TP at RM1.26, based on unchanged 30x FY26F EPS of 4.2 sen.

 

Results within expectations. Excluding a fair value gain from other investments (-RM1.1m), KOPI reported a 4QFY25 CNP of RM14.8m (-12.9% QoQ), bringing the 12MFY25 total to RM60.0m. The result was within expectations, accounting for 98% of our full-year forecast and 97% of consensus estimates.

 

Dividend. The Group declared a first interim dividend of 1.0 sen (ex-date: 9 Dec 2025). 

 

QoQ. Despite a 14.1% increase in revenue, KOPI reported a 12.9% decline in CNP, mainly due to a sharp rise in administrative expenses (+90.1%) and higher tax expenses (+53.5%). The surge in administrative expenses is likely linked to financial year-end bonuses and staff incentives. Meanwhile, the effective tax rate increased to 35% (from 24% in 3QFY25), largely due to non-deductible pre-commencement and start-up expenses tied to new outlet openings during the year.

 

YoY. Since KOPI was only listed in January 2025, no YoY comparison is available.

 

Outlook. We expect KOPI’s café segment to remain the key earnings driver in FY26F, supported by resilient domestic consumption and rising household spending across urban and suburban areas. Tourism momentum is also strengthening, with international arrivals projected to reach 35.6m by 2026 under the Visit Malaysia 2026 campaign, which should lift footfall in malls where KOPI’s cafés are typically located. As part of its growth strategy, the Group will continue expanding its domestic café network and, excluding Singapore outlets, we forecast 6 additional cafés to be added in FY26F.

 

Earnings Revision. Forecasts maintained, as results were within expectations.

 

Valuation & Recommendation. With the surge in share price reducing the stock’s upside potential, we downgrade our call to HOLD from BUY. We maintain our TP at RM1.26, based on unchanged 30x FY26F EPS of 4.2 sen, alongside its three-star ESG rating.

 

Risks. Quality control, shortage of labour and supply chain disruptions.

Read more details in:

Disclaimer

The report is for internal and private circulation only and shall not be reproduced either in part or otherwise without the prior written consent of Apex Securities Berhad. The opinions and information contained herein are based on available data believed to be reliable. It is not to be construed as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell the securities covered by this report.

Opinions, estimates and projections in this report constitute the current judgment of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Apex Securities Berhad and are subject to change without notice. Apex Securities Berhad has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate.

Apex Securities Berhad does not warrant the accuracy of anything stated herein in any manner whatsoever and no reliance upon such statement by anyone shall give rise to any claim whatsoever against Apex Securities Berhad. Apex Securities Berhad may from time to time have an interest in the company mentioned by this report. This report may not be reproduced, copied or circulated without the prior written approval of Apex Securities Berhad.

Market Mover
Settlement Rates
Currency Buy Rates (RM) Sell Rates (RM)
USD 4.097077 4.130856
EUR 4.800240 4.806405
CNY 0.581645 0.582383
HKD 0.526592 0.530422
SGD 3.164464 3.187623