GDEX Bhd - Within Expectations
Mon, 02-Mar-2026 08:42 am
by Daryl Hon • Apex Research

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GDEX (0078)

Target Price (RM)

0.20

Recommendation

Buy

  • GDEX reported a 4QFY25 CNP of RM3.2m (-49.9% YoY). 12MFY25 core net loss narrowed to RM1.7m, within our expectations versus our full-year forecast of -RM3.8m.

  • We expect GDEX to return to profitability in FY26, with CNP turning around from a core net loss of RM1.7m in FY25 to a profit of RM19.4m. Recovery will be supported by improving volumes in express delivery and logistics operations, cost rationalisation at NETCO, and higher profit contribution from the IT segment.

  • Maintain BUY recommendation with an unchanged TP of RM0.20, based on assigned 30.0x P/E multiple to its FY26F EPS of 0.7 sen, along with a three-star ESG rating.

Results within expectations. Excluding net remeasurement of receivables allowance of RM0.1m and FX loss of RM0.1m, GDEX reported a 4QFY25 CNP of RM3.2m (-49.9% YoY). For 12MFY25, core net loss narrowed to RM1.7m, which was within our expectations versus our full-year forecast of -RM3.8m.

 

YoY. CNP declined 49.9%, mainly due to weaker PBT contributions across its express delivery, logistics and IT segments. The express delivery segment’s PBT fell 55.0% on lower delivery volumes at its Netco subsidiary in Vietnam, while logistics PBT declined 52.5% due to reduced volumes from a key customer. Meanwhile, the IT segment’s PBT dropped 63.2% despite a 14.5% increase in revenue, reflecting higher investment costs incurred in FY25 which weighed on margins.

 

QoQ. CNP swung from a core net loss of RM3.4m to a profit of RM3.2m, driven by stronger PBT contributions from the express delivery and IT segments. Express delivery PBT reversed from a RM0.1m loss to RM3.3m on higher demand across Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam. Meanwhile, IT PBT rose 121.0%, supported by revenue recognised from project awards that were deferred from the preceding quarter.

 

Outlook. We expect GDEX to return to profitability in FY26, with CNP turning around from a core net loss of RM1.7m in FY25 to a profit of RM19.4m. The recovery will be driven by improvements in the express delivery and logistics operations, with revenue projected to grow 15.9% in FY26F following upgrades to the Malaysia–Singapore lane and the establishment of a dedicated Brunei lane to lift volumes and expand cross-border capabilities. This will be supported by restructuring initiatives at NETCO in Vietnam, including optimisation of delivery routes, rationalisation of truck rentals and a shift of selected long-haul routes from trucks to rail, which we estimate will generate cost savings of c.RM8.4m in FY26. In addition, following the launch of the Group’s GD Xchange Experience Centre in February 2026, we expect stronger cross-selling and bundled solutions to support a more recurring revenue base, with the IT segment projected to contribute RM9.5m in CNP for FY26F.

 

Earnings Revision. Forecasts maintained, as results were within expectations.

 

Valuation and Recommendation. We maintain our BUY recommendation with a TP of RM0.20, based on 30.0x FY26F EPS of 0.7 sen, supported by a three-star ESG rating. We remain positive on GDEX’s FY26 turnaround, driven by (i) recovery in its express delivery and logistics operations(ii) cost rationalisation at NETCO and (iii) higher revenue and profit contributions from the GD Xchange segment.

 

Risks. Intensifying competition and margin pressure in the core express delivery segment, execution risks in IT diversification and scaling the GD Xchange ecosystem, and continued underperformance of its NETCO associate in Vietnam.

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