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Market Highlights
Economic Update
Thu, 29 Oct 2026 07:12 am
US FOMC Meeting - Fed in wait-and-see mode  

• The Fed held the policy rate at 3.75-4.00%, with two dissenters favouring a 25-bp hike.
• We view this as a hawkish pause as the Fed awaits more data before its next move.
• We maintain our projection for two additional 25-bp hikes by end-2027.
• Domestic markets could face greater foreign flow volatility amid Fed tightening, putting pressure on the ringgit. We expect USDMYR to moderate to 4.15 in 2027.
• Fed tightening and a resilient domestic outlook reinforce our expectation for BNM to raise the OPR by 25 bps in 2027 to 3.00%.

Economic Update
Tue, 20 Oct 2026 07:07 am
Malaysia External Trade - Upside surprise in exports

• Exports surged +54.5% YoY in September (Aug: +45.4%), while imports accelerated to +52.7% (Aug: +41.1%). The trade surplus widened to RM33.7bn (Aug: RM28.1bn).
• Manufacturing led export growth, while commodity exports improved.
• Sustained growth in intermediate imports points to robust manufacturing activity ahead.
• We raise our 2026 export growth forecast to +35.1% YoY (previously: +26.2%), reflecting stronger-than-expected YTD growth momentum.
• Downside risks include prolonged Middle East tensions and continued uncertainty surrounding US trade policy.

Economic Update
Tue, 20 Oct 2026 07:05 am
Malaysia Inflation Rate - Steady inflation; upside risks in 2027

• Headline inflation eased to +1.8% YoY in September (Aug: +1.9%), driven by slower price gains in electricity and food.
• Core inflation was steady at +1.7% YoY, pointing to subdued underlying price pressures.
• Targeted fuel subsidies should cushion the impact of higher energy prices on inflation.
• We revise our 2026 inflation forecast to +1.8% YoY (previously +2.0%), within the official projection range of 1.5-2.5%.
• We maintain our 2027 inflation forecast at +2.0% YoY (MoF: 1.8-2.8%) with upside risks.

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