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Market Highlights
Local Market Strategy
Mon, 19 Oct 2026 07:22 am
Post-Budget 2027 Strategy - Oil Is the Swing Factor; Stay Barbelled

What We Heard
Beyond the Speech. The Maybank–MUFG post-Budget 2027 dialogue on 16 October 2026, led by Treasury Secretary-General Tan Sri Johan Mahmood Merican alongside Maybank IB’s chief economist and MUFG representatives, offered several insights that were not covered in the Budget speech. None changes our call. We maintain our Neutral market stance, our end-2026 FBM KLCI target of 1,770 and our barbell strategy.

Economic Update
Mon, 19 Oct 2026 07:20 am
Malaysia 3Q26 Advance GDP Estimate - Another positive surprise, yet headwinds ahead

• Malaysia’s economy expanded +5.3% YoY in 3Q26 (2Q26: +6.0%), exceeding our forecast and Bloomberg consensus, driven by manufacturing and agriculture.
• The 3Q26 GDP print points to upside to our 2026 GDP growth forecast of +5.0% YoY, with growth potentially reaching +5.4%.
• Nonetheless, we remain cautious over uneven growth momentum, with growth likely to moderate further in 4Q26 amid the high base effect.
• We expect the moderation to extend into 2027, with geopolitical tensions, trade policy uncertainty, El Niño and cost pressures weighing on growth.
• We maintain our 2027 GDP growth forecast at +4.5% YoY.

Economic Update
Mon, 12 Oct 2026 07:04 am
Industrial Production & Labour Market - Steady growth outlook keeps rate hike on cards        

• The Industrial Production Index (IPI) accelerated to +5.0% YoY in August (Jul: +4.7%), driven by firmer manufacturing and electricity output.
• Global demand and resilient domestic activity should support manufacturing, although rising headwinds could weigh on growth in 2027.
• The unemployment rate improved to 2.9% in August (Jul: 3.0%), consistent with resilient domestic economic activity.
• We maintain our GDP growth forecasts at +5.0% for 2026 and +4.5% for 2027.
• We maintain our expectation for one 25-bp OPR hike to 3.00% in 2027.

Technical Calls
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Settlement Rates
Currency Buy Rates (RM) Sell Rates (RM)
USD 4.065852 4.097386
EUR 4.589381 4.597416
CNY 0.610175 0.610647
HKD 0.518032 0.522054
SGD 3.177971 3.202709
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