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Market Highlights
Economic Update
Mon, 22 Jun 2026 07:35 pm
Malaysia Inflation Rate: Inflation risks contained

• Malaysia’s headline inflation printed +2.0% YoY in May (Apr: +1.9%), marginally below consensus of +2.1%, as higher food prices offset easing transport inflation.
• Core inflation was unchanged at +2.0% YoY, suggesting steady demand conditions.
• We maintain our 2026 inflation forecast at +2.1% YoY, with our full-year Brent assumption of USD85/bbl remaining within reach.
• Given the still-benign inflation outlook, we expect the OPR to remain at 2.75% this year.

Economic Update
Mon, 22 Jun 2026 07:30 pm
Malaysia External Trade: E&E strength lifts trade outlook    

• Exports surged to +45.3% YoY in May (Apr: +37.3%), while imports rose +14.1% (Apr: +20.0%). The trade surplus widened sharply to RM40.4bn (Apr: RM29.2bn).
• Manufacturing (+51.7% YoY; Apr: +40.5%) remained the key driver of export growth, while mining provided additional support.
• We revise our 2026 export growth forecast to +16.3% YoY (previously: +8.1%), reflecting robust year-to-date growth of +24.3% and stronger-than-expected E&E prospects.
• We expect export growth to moderate in 2H26 as frontloaded demand gradually fades. Other risks include US trade policy uncertainty and the fragile US-Iran agreement.

Economic Update
Thu, 18 Jun 2026 07:40 am
US FOMC Meeting - Hawkish tilt as Fed commits to price stability

• The Fed voted unanimously to keep the policy rate at 3.50–3.75%.
• New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh announced a broad overhaul of the Fed’s operations, including a move away from forward guidance.
• We perceive the Fed as having adopted a more hawkish bias and now expect one 25-bp rate hike in 2026, likely in September (previously: no rate change). 
• Growing expectations of a more hawkish Fed stance should support the USD in the near term. We maintain our USD/MYR forecast of 4.03 for 2026.

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