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Market Highlights
Market Outlook
Mon, 28 Sep 2026 06:42 am
Market Outlook - Trump-Xi: De-escalation, Not a Reset

• Trump-Xi summit eases near-term trade tensions, with the US-China trade truce extended to 10 January 2027, but major structural disputes remain unresolved.
• Malaysia stands to benefit from greater trade visibility, given strong exposure to both China and the US, with E&E exports remaining a key growth driver.
• Budget 2027 on 9 October could trigger a Pre-Budget Rally.
• Maintain our Barbell Strategy, favouring AI and semiconductors, data centre infrastructure, energy transition, critical minerals and consumer digitalisation, alongside defensive exposure to Utilities and Plantation.
• Maintain our year-end KLCI target of 1,770.

Economic Update
Mon, 21 Sep 2026 07:34 am
Malaysia External Trade - Still going strong

Exports accelerated to +45.5% YoY in August (Jul: +38.0%), while imports remained robust at +41.1% (Jul: +36.3%). The trade surplus widened to RM28.1bn (Jul: RM22.5bn).

Manufacturing and LNG drove export growth, partly offset by weaker agriculture.

Strong intermediate goods imports point to firm order pipelines, which should support near-term industrial and export activity.

We expect exports to remain supported by the tech upcycle and potential trade diversion.

Headwinds include an unfavourable base effect, renewed Middle East tensions and uncertainty surrounding US trade policy.

We maintain our 2026 export growth forecast at +26.2% YoY (2025: +6.6%).

Economic Update
Mon, 21 Sep 2026 07:30 am
Malaysia Inflation Rate - Policy measures cushion inflation upside

Headline inflation edged up to +1.9% YoY in August (Jul: +1.8%), driven by higher transport and electricity costs.

Core inflation eased further in August, pointing to subdued underlying price pressures.

We maintain our 2026 and 2027 inflation forecasts at +2.0% YoY, with upside risks from elevated commodity prices, business cost pass-through and El Niño.

Subsidy policy adjustments should keep price pressures in check, supporting household purchasing power and domestic spending.

We expect BNM to keep the OPR at 2.75% in 2026, before raising it to 3.00% in 2027.

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EUR 4.642019 4.645551
CNY 0.607873 0.608337
HKD 0.518664 0.522176
SGD 3.182150 3.203807
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