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Market Highlights
Economic Update
Mon, 21 Sep 2026 07:34 am
Malaysia External Trade - Still going strong

Exports accelerated to +45.5% YoY in August (Jul: +38.0%), while imports remained robust at +41.1% (Jul: +36.3%). The trade surplus widened to RM28.1bn (Jul: RM22.5bn).

Manufacturing and LNG drove export growth, partly offset by weaker agriculture.

Strong intermediate goods imports point to firm order pipelines, which should support near-term industrial and export activity.

We expect exports to remain supported by the tech upcycle and potential trade diversion.

Headwinds include an unfavourable base effect, renewed Middle East tensions and uncertainty surrounding US trade policy.

We maintain our 2026 export growth forecast at +26.2% YoY (2025: +6.6%).

Economic Update
Mon, 21 Sep 2026 07:30 am
Malaysia Inflation Rate - Policy measures cushion inflation upside

Headline inflation edged up to +1.9% YoY in August (Jul: +1.8%), driven by higher transport and electricity costs.

Core inflation eased further in August, pointing to subdued underlying price pressures.

We maintain our 2026 and 2027 inflation forecasts at +2.0% YoY, with upside risks from elevated commodity prices, business cost pass-through and El Niño.

Subsidy policy adjustments should keep price pressures in check, supporting household purchasing power and domestic spending.

We expect BNM to keep the OPR at 2.75% in 2026, before raising it to 3.00% in 2027.

Economic Update
Thu, 17 Sep 2026 07:32 am
US FOMC Meeting - Fed raises 25 bps; tightening cycle into 2027  

• The Fed voted unanimously to raise the policy rate by 25bps to 3.75-4.00%, supporting a timelier return to its 2.0% inflation target.
• The dot plot signals another 25-bp rate hike this year, followed by a steady rate in 2027.
• We now expect another 25-bp hike in October, followed by one further rate hike in 2027.
• While we expect BNM to raise the OPR by 25 bps in 2027, the larger increase in the Fed funds rate would put some pressure on the ringgit. We maintain our projection for USDMYR to average 4.03 this year, before moderating modestly to 4.15 in 2027.

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