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Market Highlights
Market Outlook
Fri, 31 Jul 2026 07:09 am
Economics & Market Outlook - If the Strait of Malacca Shuts Down

• The US-Iran conflict demonstrates that disruptions to one maritime chokepoint can quickly affect the global economy.
• A disruption to the Strait of Malacca would pose a far greater risk to Malaysia given its dependence on maritime trade.
• Our scenario analysis suggests GDP could slow to 2.5%–3.1%, while inflation could exceed 3.0% under a severe disruption.
• We view this as a tail-risk scenario rather than our base case, but one investors should not ignore.
• Our base-case outlook remains unchanged, with a FBM KLCI year-end target of 1,787 and our top picks of Mi Technovation (BUY, TP: RM6.38), EG Industries (BUY, TP: RM2.80), MSC (BUY, TP: RM3.06), MITRA (BUY, TP: RM1.27) and ISF (BUY, TP: RM0.62). 

Economic Update
Thu, 30 Jul 2026 06:42 am
US FOMC Meeting - Hawkish hold as price stability takes precedence  

• The Fed held the policy rate at 3.50–3.75%, with three dissenters favouring a 25-bp hike.
• Chair Warsh reiterated the Fed’s commitment to restoring price stability to its 2.0% inflation target, with policy decisions guided by broader inflation trends.
• We continue to expect one 25-bp rate hike in September 2026, as restoring price stability takes precedence over supporting economic growth.
• We maintain our view that BNM will keep the OPR unchanged at 2.75% through 2026 amid a benign inflation outlook.

Market Outlook
Mon, 27 Jul 2026 07:28 am
Market Strategy: Volatility is the New Normal

Global shipping risks have expanded beyond the Strait of Hormuz as disruptions increasingly threaten the Red Sea and Suez Canal.

Weak Chinese crude demand should help cap oil price upside, reducing the likelihood of a prolonged energy shock.

We maintain our FBM KLCI year-end target of 1,787, although heightened geopolitical tensions and domestic political developments are likely to keep market volatility elevated.

We continue to characterise the current environment as a Kangaroo Market, where rapid swings in sentiment create opportunities for selective accumulation.

Our top picks are Mi Technovation (BUY, TP: RM6.38), EG Industries (BUY, TP: RM2.80), MSC (BUY, TP: RM3.06), MITRA (BUY, TP: RM1.27) and ISF (BUY, TP: RM0.62).

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