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Market Highlights
Economic Update
Mon, 20 Jul 2026 12:23 am
Malaysia 2Q26 Advance GDP Estimate - Positive surprise defies geopolitical concerns    

• Malaysia’s economy expanded +5.8% YoY in 2Q26 (1Q26: +5.4%), exceeding consensus of +5.2%, driven by mining and manufacturing.
• Going forward, manufacturing will be underpinned by sustained demand for E&E products, while services should remain supported by resilient domestic demand.
• Nevertheless, we expect growth to moderate in 2H26, with sectoral performance likely to remain uneven as the lagged impacts of supply disruptions become more evident.
• We revise our 2026 GDP growth forecast upward to +5.0% (previously +4.7%), the upper end of BNM’s 4.0%-5.0% projection range.
• For 2027, we project preliminary GDP growth of +4.5%, reflecting more moderate macroeconomic conditions.

Economic Update
Mon, 20 Jul 2026 12:20 am
Malaysia Inflation Rate - Benign inflation outlook despite lingering geopolitical risks

• Malaysia’s headline inflation eased to +1.9% YoY in June (May: +2.0%), marginally below consensus of +2.0%, driven mainly by lower transport inflation.
• Core inflation eased slightly to +1.9% YoY (May: +2.0%), pointing to an absence of excessive demand pressures.
• In view of the softer-than-expected inflation trend year-to-date, we revise our 2026 inflation forecast slightly lower to +2.0% YoY (previously +2.1%).
• We project inflation of +2.0% YoY in 2027, reflecting our expectation of a broadly stable price environment.

Economic Update
Mon, 13 Jul 2026 07:33 am
Malaysia Labour Market -  Steady outlook despite modest headwinds in 2H26

• The unemployment rate stayed at 3.0% in May, in line with resilient domestic activity. 
• Labour market conditions should remain stable, supported by firm domestic demand and continued strength in export-oriented industries.
• We remain cognisant of potential lagged impacts from elevated material and operating costs on business activity and hiring in 2H26.
• We maintain our unemployment rate forecast of 3.0% in 2026 (2025: 3.0%).

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