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Market Highlights
Economic Update
Tue, 21 Apr 2026 07:53 am
Malaysia External Trade - Resilience amid external headwinds

Exports held firm at +8.3% YoY in March (Feb: +10.7%), while imports accelerated to +10.4% (Feb: +8.2%). The trade surplus widened to RM24.6bn (Feb: RM16.7bn).

The quarterly trade surplus of RM63.2bn (4Q25: RM48.6bn) points to a stronger external sector contribution to 1Q26 GDP.

Manufacturing exports sustained growth (+9.6% YoY; Feb: +12.7%), with E&E maintaining double-digit expansion, while commodity exports remained weak.

While risks of supply chain disruption from the Middle East conflict persist, current import trends suggest no material impact at this juncture.

Exports should remain supported by sustained E&E demand and higher commodity prices. However, external headwinds from the Middle East conflict and tariff uncertainty remain.

We maintain our 2026 export growth forecast at +4.8% YoY (2025: +6.4%).

Economic Update
Mon, 20 Apr 2026 07:15 am
Malaysia Inflation Rate - Inflation risks building up    

•    Malaysia’s headline inflation rose to +1.7% YoY in March (Feb: +1.4%), in line with consensus, driven mainly by higher transport costs amid rising crude oil prices.
•    Core inflation came in at +2.1% YoY (Feb: +2.3%), in line with its 2021–2025 average, pointing to steady underlying demand conditions.
•    We revise our Brent assumption to USD85/bbl for 2026 (previously USD65/bbl) and estimate a modest 0.2ppt increase in inflation from higher fuel prices.
•    We revise our 2026 inflation forecast to +2.1% YoY (previously +1.8%), with upside risks from a potential RON95 price adjustment and broader cost passthrough.
•    Barring a sharper-than-expected rise in inflation, we maintain our view that BNM will keep the OPR unchanged at 2.75% throughout 2026 to preserve growth.

Economic Update
Mon, 20 Apr 2026 07:11 am
Malaysia 1Q26 Advance GDP Estimate - Growth outlook remains intact despite rising headwinds    

•    Malaysia’s economy expanded +5.3% YoY in 1Q26 (4Q25: +6.3%), above our in-house forecast of +4.9%, driven by services and manufacturing.
•    Despite rising geopolitical risks from the Middle East conflict, Malaysia’s underlying fundamentals remain supportive of growth momentum through the rest of the year.
•    We maintain our 2026 GDP forecast at +4.7% YoY, which remains achievable under current conditions, anchored on a sustained AI cycle, resilient domestic demand, Malaysia’s net energy exporter position, and ample fiscal and monetary policy space.
•    However, a prolonged escalation in the Middle East into 3Q26 could see growth moderate towards +4.0%, the lower bound of BNM’s 4.0–5.0% projection range.

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